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European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of History. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
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Number of Authors: 192019 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 8, article id 084015Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature-hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature-hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 14, no 8, article id 084015
Keywords [en]
climate variability, climate model simulations, gridded climate reconstructions, hydroclimate, Europe, past millennium, tree-ring data
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-171966DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7eISI: 000478753700002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-171966DiVA, id: diva2:1348424
Available from: 2019-09-04 Created: 2019-09-04 Last updated: 2019-09-04Bibliographically approved

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Charpentier Ljungqvist, FredrikKrusic, Paul J.Destouni, Georgia
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Department of HistoryDepartment of Physical Geography
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