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Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Using ECMWF's System 4
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Third Swedish National Pension Fund, Sweden.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9591-124X
Number of Authors: 42019 (English)In: Weather and forecasting, ISSN 0882-8156, E-ISSN 1520-0434, Vol. 34, no 5, p. 1239-1255Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A method has been developed to forecast seasonal landfall risk using ensembles of cyclone tracks generated by ECMWF's seasonal forecast system 4. The method has been applied to analyze and retrospectively forecast the landfall risk along the North American coast. The main result is that the method can be used to forecast landfall for some parts of the coast, but the skill is lower than for basinwide forecasts of activity. The rank correlations between forecasts issued on 1 May and observations are 0.6 for basinwide tropical cyclone number and 0.5 for landfall anywhere along the coast. When the forecast period is limited to the peak of the hurricane season, the landfall correlation increases to 0.6. Moreover, when the forecast issue date is pushed forward to 1 August, basinwide tropical cyclone and hurricane correlations increase to 0.7 and 0.8, respectively, whereas landfall correlations improve less. The quality of the forecasts is in line with that obtained by others.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 34, no 5, p. 1239-1255
Keywords [en]
Hurricanes, Statistical techniques, Ensembles, Forecasting techniques, Seasonal forecasting
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-172953DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0032.1ISI: 000483558700001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-172953DiVA, id: diva2:1352270
Available from: 2019-09-18 Created: 2019-09-18 Last updated: 2019-12-12Bibliographically approved

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