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On the evolution of hydrological modelling for water resources in Eastern Africa
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1137-648X
2018 (English)In: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, ISSN 1749-8848, E-ISSN 1749-8848, Vol. 13, p. 1-26, article id 028Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This review provides an assessment of the evolution of hydrological modelling for Eastern Africa. We outline the historical development and perspectives considered as this region, like many regions around the world, sees increasing attention on how water resources can be sustainably developed. We emphasize the spatial scales and modelling approaches that typify the region and how these have changed with time. The review is done in two complementary approaches. The first approach is to explore a practical, real-world example providing context for the Eastern Africa region and the water resource development issues presently faced. We use Tanzania's 34 000 km2 Kilombero Valley (KV) river basin to explore implications of significant gaps in data and modelling scales. We hypothesize that these gaps limit the application of the current state-of-the-science to inform water management policy and practice under current and estimated future conditions. In our second approach, we investigate possible solutions to bridge these gaps through a review of case studies from other Eastern Africa's basins across a range of sizes. Our result highlight that some applications of the models considered under this review anticipated more recent international developments as indicated in Predictions in Ungauged Basins and Panta Rhei initiatives. Through this review, it is clear that there is a possibility to improve understanding of the hydrological processes relevant at scales such as the KV river basin through the use of (1) global precipitation datasets (e.g. satellite and/or homogenized observed data) as input data; (2) remote sensing datasets as model evaluation variable; (3) regionalization around the transferability of model parameters; (4) modification of model codes/structures to suit local conditions; and (5) understanding and application of uncertainty principles in hydrological modelling. Given that many regions of the world face similar water resource management challenges as Eastern Africa; it is likely that the findings of this review could help guide how we develop the next generation of modelling approaches to leverage information from various scales.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 13, p. 1-26, article id 028
Keywords [en]
Hydrological model, Traditional modelling, Beyond traditional modelling, Kilombero Valley river basin, Eastern Africa
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Environmental Sciences; Natural Resources Management
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-176292DOI: 10.1079/PAVSNNR201813028OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-176292DiVA, id: diva2:1373777
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, SWE-2011-066Available from: 2019-11-28 Created: 2019-11-28 Last updated: 2019-12-09Bibliographically approved

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