Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Emergent constraints on Earth's transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1418-4077
Number of Authors: 22019 (English)In: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, E-ISSN 1752-0908, Vol. 12, no 11, p. 902-905Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Future global warming is determined by both greenhouse gas emission pathways and Earth's transient and equilibrium climate response to doubled atmospheric CO2. Energy-balance inference from the instrumental record typically yields central estimates for the transient response of around 1.3 K and the equilibrium response of 1.5-2.0 K, which is at the lower end of those from contemporary climate models. Uncertainty arises primarily from poorly known aerosol-induced cooling since the early industrialization era and a temporary cooling induced by evolving sea surface temperature patterns. Here we present an emergent constraint on post-1970s warming, taking advantage of the weakly varying aerosol cooling during this period. We derive a relationship between the transient response and the post-1970s warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We thereby constrain, with the observations, the transient response to 1.67 K (1.17-2.16 K, 5-95th percentiles). This is a 20% increase relative to energy-balance inference stemming from previously neglected upper-ocean energy storage. For the equilibrium climate sensitivity we obtain a best estimate of 2.83 K (1.72-4.12 K) contingent on the temporary pattern effects exhibited by climate models. If the real world's surface temperature pattern effects are substantially stronger, then the upper-bound equilibrium sensitivity may be higher than found here.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 12, no 11, p. 902-905
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-176601DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0463-yISI: 000493905700010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-176601DiVA, id: diva2:1376875
Available from: 2019-12-10 Created: 2019-12-10 Last updated: 2019-12-10Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Mauritsen, Thorsten
By organisation
Department of Meteorology
In the same journal
Nature Geoscience
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 5 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf