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Are market views on banking industry useful for forecasting economic growth?
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Stockholm Business School. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China.
Number of Authors: 32019 (English)In: Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, ISSN 0927-538X, E-ISSN 1879-0585, Vol. 57, article id UNSP 101082Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Using two market-view variables, namely the regulatory forbearance fraction imbedded in the bank capital and the market-valued of the bank equity-to -assets ratio, derived from market equity and total liabilities from listed commercial banks in the U.S. and three countries (Japan, China, India) and a region (Southeast Asia) in Asia, we show compelling evidence that market views on banking industry have significant predictive power on economic growth after controlling for stock, bond, and inflation variables. The current paper further contributes to the literature on interaction between the financial intermediation and the economic growth by showing evidence of market perceptions of the banking industry impacting the real economic activities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 57, article id UNSP 101082
Keywords [en]
Bank regulation, Regulatory forbearance, Forecasting, Economic growth
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-176745DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.10.011ISI: 000496333600041OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-176745DiVA, id: diva2:1377152
Available from: 2019-12-11 Created: 2019-12-11 Last updated: 2019-12-12Bibliographically approved

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