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Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9531-1965
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7978-0040
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9408-4425
Number of Authors: 42019 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 16, no 19, article id 3717Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Hydroclimatic changes may be particularly pronounced in high-latitude regions and can influence infectious diseases, jeopardizing regional human and animal health. In this study, we consider the example of tularemia, one of the most studied diseases in high-latitude regions, which is likely to be impacted by large regional hydroclimatic changes. For this disease case, we use a validated statistical model and develop a method for quantifying possible hydroclimatically driven shifts in outbreak conditions. The results show high sensitivity of tularemia outbreaks to certain combinations of hydroclimatic variable values. These values are within the range of past regional observations and may represent just mildly shifted conditions from current hydroclimatic averages. The methodology developed also facilitates relatively simple identification of possible critical hydroclimatic thresholds, beyond which unacceptable endemic disease levels may be reached. These results call for further research on how projected hydroclimatic changes may affect future outbreaks of tularemia and other infectious diseases in high-latitude and other world regions, with particular focus on critical thresholds to high-risk conditions. More research is also needed on the generality and spatiotemporal transferability of statistical disease models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 16, no 19, article id 3717
Keywords [en]
hydroclimatic change, infectious disease, tularemia, critical thresholds, high-latitude regions, Arctic
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-176747DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16193717ISI: 000494748600213PubMedID: 31581631OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-176747DiVA, id: diva2:1377154
Available from: 2019-12-11 Created: 2019-12-11 Last updated: 2019-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Ma, YanBring, ArvidKalantari, ZahraDestouni, Georgia
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