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Deep reinforcement learning in World-Earth system models to discover sustainable management strategies
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5233-7703
2019 (English)In: Chaos, ISSN 1054-1500, E-ISSN 1089-7682, Vol. 29, no 12, article id 123122Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Increasingly complex nonlinear World-Earth system models are used for describing the dynamics of the biophysical Earth system and the socioeconomic and sociocultural World of human societies and their interactions. Identifying pathways toward a sustainable future in these models for informing policymakers and the wider public, e.g., pathways leading to robust mitigation of dangerous anthropogenic climate change, is a challenging and widely investigated task in the field of climate research and broader Earth system science. This problem is particularly difficult when constraints on avoiding transgressions of planetary boundaries and social foundations need to be taken into account. In this work, we propose to combine recently developed machine learning techniques, namely, deep reinforcement learning (DRL), with classical analysis of trajectories in the World-Earth system. Based on the concept of the agent-environment interface, we develop an agent that is generally able to act and learn in variable manageable environment models of the Earth system. We demonstrate the potential of our framework by applying DRL algorithms to two stylized World-Earth system models. Conceptually, we explore thereby the feasibility of finding novel global governance policies leading into a safe and just operating space constrained by certain planetary and socioeconomic boundaries. The artificially intelligent agent learns that the timing of a specific mix of taxing carbon emissions and subsidies on renewables is of crucial relevance for finding World-Earth system trajectories that are sustainable in the long term.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 29, no 12, article id 123122
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-178218DOI: 10.1063/1.5124673ISI: 000505563100018Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85076945341OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-178218DiVA, id: diva2:1387179
Available from: 2020-01-20 Created: 2020-01-20 Last updated: 2020-03-05Bibliographically approved

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