Background: Olfactory dysfunction (OD) refers to a reduced or absent ability to smell. OD negatively impacts health and quality of life and its prevalence increases with advancing age. Since OD may be an early marker of dementia and impending death, more knowledge regarding risk factors of OD in aging is warranted. The objective was therefore to explore longitudinally which demographic, genetic, clinical, lifestyle, and cognitive factors predict the development of OD.

Methods: The study included participants aged 60–90 years from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K), who did not have OD at baseline and were reassessed with an odor identification task at a 6-year follow-up (n = 1,004). Risk factors of OD were assessed with multivariable logistic regression analyses.

Results: The percentage of incident OD cases was 14.2% over 6 years in the total sample and this number increased monotonically with age. Increasing age, carrying the ε4 allele of the APOE gene, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, and current smoking were found to be risk factors for the development of OD, whereas better olfactory identification and verbal episodic memory proficiency at baseline were identified as protective factors.

Conclusions: In addition to nonmodifiable factors (age and genetic risk), several modifiable risk factors of OD were identified. This suggests that it might be possible to reduce OD incidence through the management of vascular risk factors and maintenance of a healthy lifestyle.