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Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
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Number of Authors: 52020 (English)In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 117, no 23, p. 12915-12922Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social-ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 117, no 23, p. 12915-12922
Keywords [en]
social dilemma, stochastic game, tipping element, time preferences
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-183652DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1916545117ISI: 000545949100028PubMedID: 32434908OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-183652DiVA, id: diva2:1455612
Available from: 2020-07-27 Created: 2020-07-27 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved

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Barfuss, WolfraDonges, Jonathan F.Vasconcelos, Vitor V.Levin, Simon A.

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