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A network-based microfoundation of Granovetter's threshold model for social tipping
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
Number of Authors: 42020 (English)In: Scientific Reports, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 10, no 1, article id 11202Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Social tipping, where minorities trigger larger populations to engage in collective action, has been suggested as one key aspect in addressing contemporary global challenges. Here, we refine Granovetter's widely acknowledged theoretical threshold model of collective behavior as a numerical modelling tool for understanding social tipping processes and resolve issues that so far have hindered such applications. Based on real-world observations and social movement theory, we group the population into certain or potential actors, such that - in contrast to its original formulation - the model predicts non-trivial final shares of acting individuals. Then, we use a network cascade model to explain and analytically derive that previously hypothesized broad threshold distributions emerge if individuals become active via social interaction. Thus, through intuitive parameters and low dimensionality our refined model is adaptable to explain the likelihood of engaging in collective behavior where social-tipping-like processes emerge as saddle-node bifurcations and hysteresis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 10, no 1, article id 11202
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-184505DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-67102-6ISI: 000548300100010PubMedID: 32641784OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-184505DiVA, id: diva2:1467366
Available from: 2020-09-15 Created: 2020-09-15 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Donges, Jonathan F.

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