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A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9228-7357
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
Number of Authors: 32020 (English)In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 369, no 6505, p. 846-849Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020, many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Using a model, we show that population heterogeneity can affect disease-induced immunity considerably because the proportion of infected individuals in groups with the highest contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. We estimate that if R-0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be similar to 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. Our estimates should be interpreted as an illustration of how population heterogeneity affects herd immunity rather than as an exact value or even a best estimate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 369, no 6505, p. 846-849
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-185362DOI: 10.1126/science.abc6810ISI: 000559731300042PubMedID: 32576668OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-185362DiVA, id: diva2:1476498
Available from: 2020-10-14 Created: 2020-10-14 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved

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Britton, TomTrapman, Pieter

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