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Efficient Particle Smoothing for Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Survival Models
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3902-3846
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This article proposes an efficient Bayesian inference for piecewise exponential hazard (PEH) models, which allow the effect of a covariate to change over time. The proposed inference methodology is based on a particle smoothing (PS) algorithm that depends on three particle filters. Efficient proposal (importance) distributions for the particle filters tailored to the nature of survival data and PEH models are developedusing the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution and linear Bayes theory. The algorithm is applied to both simulated and real data, and the results show that it generates an effective sample sizethat is more than two orders of magnitude larger than a state-of-the-art MCMC sampler for the samecomputing time, and scales well in high-dimensional and relatively large data.

Keywords [en]
Hazard function, Linear Bayes, particle filter, particle smoothing, piecewise exponential, Survival function
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186096OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-186096DiVA, id: diva2:1479035
Available from: 2020-10-24 Created: 2020-10-24 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Bayesian Sequential Inference for Dynamic Regression Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bayesian Sequential Inference for Dynamic Regression Models
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Many processes evolve over time and statistical models need to be adaptive to change. This thesis proposes flexible models and statistical methods for inference about a data generating process that varies over time. The models considered are quite general dynamic predictive models with parameters linked to a set of covariates via link functions. The dynamics can arise from time-varying regression coefficients and from changes in the link function over time. The covariates can be time-varying and may also have incomplete information.

An efficient Bayesian inference methodology is developed for analyzing the posterior of dynamic regression models sequentially, with a particular focus on online learning and real-time prediction. The core inferential algorithm belongs to a family of sequential Monte Carlo methods commonly known as particle filters, and a key contribution is the development of a tailored proposal distribution. The algorithm is shown to outperform a state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and is also extended to mixture-of-experts models.

The performance of the inference methodology is assessed through various simulation experiments and real data from clinical and social-demographic studies, as well as from an industrial software development project.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, 2020
Keywords
Bayesian sequential inference, Dynamic regression models, Particle filter, Online prediction, Particle smoothing, Linear Bayes
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186121 (URN)978-91-7911-336-0 (ISBN)978-91-7911-337-7 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-12-11, hörsal 6, hus C, Universitetsvägen 10 C, and digitally via Zoom. A link will be published at https://www.statistics.su.se/, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-11-18 Created: 2020-10-25 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved

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Munezero, Parfait

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