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Dynamic Bayesian adjustment of anticipatory covariates in retrospective data: application to the effect of education on divorce risk
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3902-3846
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2910-8432
2022 (English)In: Journal of Applied Statistics, ISSN 0266-4763, E-ISSN 1360-0532, Vol. 49, no 6, p. 1382-1401Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We address a problem in inference from retrospective studies where the value of a variable is measured at the date of the survey but is used as covariate to events that have occurred long before the survey. This causes problem because the value of the current-date (anticipatory) covariate does not follow the temporal order of events. We propose a dynamic Bayesian approach for modelling jointly the anticipatory covariate and the event of interest, and allowing the effects of the anticipatory covariate to vary over time. The issues are illustrated with data on the effects of education attained by the survey-time on divorce risks among Swedish men. The overall results show that failure to adjust for the anticipatory nature of education leads to elevated relative risks of divorce across educational levels. The results are partially in accordance with previous findings based on analyses of the same data set. More importantly, our findings provide new insights in that the bias due to anticipatory covariates varies over marriage duration.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 49, no 6, p. 1382-1401
Keywords [en]
Anticipatory covariates, Bayesian inference, current-date covariates, dynamic modelling, educational gradients in divorce-risks, observational studies, retrospective surveys, Sweden
National Category
Other Social Sciences Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186097DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1864812Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85098006527OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-186097DiVA, id: diva2:1479036
Available from: 2020-10-24 Created: 2020-10-24 Last updated: 2022-04-22Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Bayesian Sequential Inference for Dynamic Regression Models
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bayesian Sequential Inference for Dynamic Regression Models
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Many processes evolve over time and statistical models need to be adaptive to change. This thesis proposes flexible models and statistical methods for inference about a data generating process that varies over time. The models considered are quite general dynamic predictive models with parameters linked to a set of covariates via link functions. The dynamics can arise from time-varying regression coefficients and from changes in the link function over time. The covariates can be time-varying and may also have incomplete information.

An efficient Bayesian inference methodology is developed for analyzing the posterior of dynamic regression models sequentially, with a particular focus on online learning and real-time prediction. The core inferential algorithm belongs to a family of sequential Monte Carlo methods commonly known as particle filters, and a key contribution is the development of a tailored proposal distribution. The algorithm is shown to outperform a state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and is also extended to mixture-of-experts models.

The performance of the inference methodology is assessed through various simulation experiments and real data from clinical and social-demographic studies, as well as from an industrial software development project.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, 2020
Keywords
Bayesian sequential inference, Dynamic regression models, Particle filter, Online prediction, Particle smoothing, Linear Bayes
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186121 (URN)978-91-7911-336-0 (ISBN)978-91-7911-337-7 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-12-11, hörsal 6, hus C, Universitetsvägen 10 C, and digitally via Zoom. A link will be published at https://www.statistics.su.se/, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-11-18 Created: 2020-10-25 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved

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Munezero, ParfaitGhilagaber, Gebrenegus

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