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Inflow restrictions can prevent epidemics when contact tracing efforts are effective but have limited capacity
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9228-7357
Number of Authors: 22020 (English)In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, ISSN 1742-5689, E-ISSN 1742-5662, Vol. 17, no 170, article id 20200351Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

When a region tries to prevent an outbreak of an epidemic, two broad strategies are available: limiting the inflow of infected cases by using travel restrictions and quarantines or limiting the risk of local transmission from imported cases by using contact tracing and other community interventions. A number of papers have used epidemiological models to argue that inflow restrictions are unlikely to be effective. We simulate a simple epidemiological model to show that this conclusion changes if containment efforts such as contact tracing have limited capacity. In particular, our results show that moderate travel restrictions can lead to large reductions in the probability of an epidemic when contact tracing is effective but the contact tracing system is close to being overwhelmed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 17, no 170, article id 20200351
Keywords [en]
epidemics, travel restrictions, contact tracing
National Category
Infectious Medicine Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186146DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0351ISI: 000571574300001PubMedID: 32900304OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-186146DiVA, id: diva2:1485188
Available from: 2020-11-01 Created: 2020-11-01 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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