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The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Institute for Labor Economics, Germany.
Number of Authors: 32020 (English)In: Journal of Political Economy, ISSN 0022-3808, E-ISSN 1537-534X, Vol. 128, no 9, p. 3285-3345Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We build a model of the US economy with multiple aggregate shocks that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom-bust around the Great Recession, with three main results. First, the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs, not a change in credit conditions. Second, the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in nondurable expenditures through a wealth effect. Third, a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 128, no 9, p. 3285-3345
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186472DOI: 10.1086/708816ISI: 000566555700001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-186472DiVA, id: diva2:1496097
Available from: 2020-11-04 Created: 2020-11-04 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved

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Mitman, Kurt

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