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The contribution of anthropogenic influence to more anomalous extreme precipitation in Europe
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
Number of Authors: 32020 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 15, no 10, article id 104077Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Anthropogenic influences can modulate the low-frequency variability of extreme precipitation and increase the likelihood of flooding events. It is not, however, clear how much and in what manner the low-frequency variability has changed in recent decades as global warming has intensified. Here, we investigate the contribution of anthropogenic influences to the time evolution of extreme precipitation anomalies in different seasons using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and CMIP5 model simulations and observations over Europe. Our results show a latitudinal dependence of changes in extreme precipitation anomalies for all seasons due to anthropogenic impacts. While the contribution of anthropogenic influences to extreme precipitation anomalies at low latitudes (<50 degrees) is less than 8% in all seasons, it goes up to 26% and 41% at mid (50 degrees-60 degrees) and high (>60 degrees) latitudes. Without the offsetting effect of anthropogenic aerosols, anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases alone should have produced larger anomalies than observed. For all seasons, the more extreme the precipitation, the larger the anthropogenic influences.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 15, no 10, article id 104077
Keywords [en]
extreme precipitation anomaly, latitudinal pattern, anthropogenic contribution, Anthropocene, climate change
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-187680DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb268ISI: 000575676600001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-187680DiVA, id: diva2:1511616
Available from: 2020-12-18 Created: 2020-12-18 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Tabari, HosseinMadani, Kaveh

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