Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 192020 (English)In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 16, no 5, p. 1953-1968Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (similar to 57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (similar to 9 to 23 degrees C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimen- tal framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (similar to 57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 degrees C (22.3 to 28.3 degrees C), 31.6 degrees C (27.2 to 34.5 degrees C), and 27.0 degrees C (23.2 to 29.7 degrees C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are similar to 10 to 16 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 degrees C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large signal associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that bulk equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 degrees C (2.4 to 6.8 degrees C), 3.6 degrees C (2.3 to 4.7 degrees C), and 3.1 degrees C (1.8 to 4.4 degrees C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ffiC per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (< 1 :5 per doubling CO2).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 16, no 5, p. 1953-1968
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-188219DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020ISI: 000586661100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-188219DiVA, id: diva2:1513078
Available from: 2020-12-29 Created: 2020-12-29 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Burls, Natalie J.Cramwinckel, Margot J.Evans, DavidHuber, Matthewde Boer, Agatha M.Edgar, Kirsty M.Hutchinson, David K.

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Burls, Natalie J.Cramwinckel, Margot J.Evans, DavidHuber, Matthewde Boer, Agatha M.Edgar, Kirsty M.Hutchinson, David K.
By organisation
Department of Geological Sciences
In the same journal
Climate of the Past
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 101 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf