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The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
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Number of Authors: 312020 (English)In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 16, no 6, p. 2095-2123Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 16, no 6, p. 2095-2123
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Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-188157DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020ISI: 000589260100002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-188157DiVA, id: diva2:1513916
Available from: 2021-01-03 Created: 2021-01-03 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Abe-Ouchi, AyakoStepanek, ChristianZhang, QiongLi, QiangBaatsen, Michiel L. J.

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Climate of the Past
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