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Predicting critical transitions in multiscale dynamical systems using reservoir computing
Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4649-673X
Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita).
Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita). Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
Stockholm University, Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita). Yale University, USA.
Number of Authors: 42020 (English)In: Chaos, ISSN 1054-1500, E-ISSN 1089-7682, Vol. 30, no 12, article id 123126Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow–fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and induces critical transitions. By taking advantage of recent advances in reservoir computing, we present a data-driven method to predict the future evolution of the state. We show that our method is capable of predicting a critical transition event at least several numerical time steps in advance. We demonstrate the success as well as the limitations of our method using numerical experiments on three examples of systems, ranging from low dimensional to high dimensional. We discuss the mathematical and broader implications of our results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. Vol. 30, no 12, article id 123126
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-190329DOI: 10.1063/5.0023764ISI: 000600201700001PubMedID: 33380032OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-190329DiVA, id: diva2:1528792
Available from: 2021-02-16 Created: 2021-02-16 Last updated: 2023-10-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. A Serendipitous Journey through Stochastic Processes
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Serendipitous Journey through Stochastic Processes
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this PhD thesis we will present some new insights in different problems in the field of stochastic processes. A stochastic resonance system is studied using path integral techniques, originally developed in quantum field theory, to recover the optimal means through which noise self-organises before a rare transition from one potential well to the other. These results allow one to determine precursors to a rare events in such system.We then study the survival probability of an autonomous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process using the asymptotic matching techniques developed in fluid dynamics. Here, we obtain a simple analytical expression for this quantity that exhibits a good agreement with numerical determination.Next, rare events in similar systems are studied using a recurrent neural network to model the noisy part of the signal. The neural network facilitates the prediction of future noise realisations and hence rare transitions.Using a combination of analytical and numerical techniques a low-dimensional model is constructed and it is able to predict and to reproduce the main dynamical and equilibrium features of the El Ni\~no and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest inter-annual variability phenomenon in the tropical Pacific which has a global impact on climate.Using the results obtained for the survival probability of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, an approximate analytical solution for the probability density function and the response is derived for a stochastic resonance system in the non-adiabatic limit.Finally, the Landauer principle is applied to investigate the thermodynamics of finite time information erasure, using a model of a Brownian particle in a symmetric double-well potential. Analytical tools are derived to calculate the distribution of the work required to erase information through an arbitrary continuous erasure protocol, and the theoretical findings are numerically validated.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Physics, Stockholm University, 2023. p. 30
Keywords
Stochastic process, statistical physics, machine learning
National Category
Other Physics Topics
Research subject
Theoretical Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-221832 (URN)978-91-8014-516-9 (ISBN)978-91-8014-517-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2023-11-17, Auditorium 3, House 2, Albano, Albanovägen 18, Stockholm, 15:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2023-10-25 Created: 2023-10-04 Last updated: 2023-10-19Bibliographically approved

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Lim, Soon HoeGiorgini, Ludovico TheoMoon, WoosokWettlaufer, John S.

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