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On the mean and variance of the estimated tangency portfolio weights for small samples
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3403-6805
2022 (English)In: Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications, ISSN 2351-6046, Vol. 9, no 4, p. 453-482Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, a sample estimator of the tangency portfolio (TP) weights is considered. The focus is on the situation where the number of observations is smaller than the number of assets in the portfolio and the returns are i.i.d. normally distributed. Under these assumptions, the sample covariance matrix follows a singular Wishart distribution and, therefore, the regular inverse cannot be taken. In the paper, bounds and approximations for the first two moments of the estimated TP weights are derived, as well as exact results are obtained when the population covariance matrix is equal to the identity matrix, employing the Moore–Penrose inverse. Moreover, exact moments based on the reflexive generalized inverse are provided. The properties of the bounds are investigated in a simulation study, where they are compared to the sample moments. The difference between the moments based on the reflexive generalized inverse and the sample moments based on the Moore–Penrose inverse is also studied.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 9, no 4, p. 453-482
Keywords [en]
Tangency portfolio, singular inverse Wishart, Moore–Penrose inverse, reflexive generalized inverse, estimator moments
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-190796DOI: 10.15559/22-VMSTA212ISI: 000891443000005Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85141848412OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-190796DiVA, id: diva2:1532636
Available from: 2021-03-02 Created: 2021-03-02 Last updated: 2022-12-20Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Modeling the covariance matrix of financial asset returns
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling the covariance matrix of financial asset returns
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The covariance matrix of asset returns, which describes the fluctuation of asset prices, plays a crucial role in understanding and predicting financial markets and economic systems. In recent years, the concept of realized covariance measures has become a popular way to accurately estimate return covariance matrices using high-frequency data. This thesis contains five research papers that study time series of realized covariance matrices, estimators for related random matrix distributions, and cases where the sample size is smaller than the number of assets considered.

Paper I provides several goodness-of-fit tests for discrete realized covariance matrix time series models that are driven by an underlying Wishart process. The test methodology is based on an extended version of Bartlett's decomposition, allowing to obtain independent and standard normally distributed random variables under the null hypothesis. The paper includes a simulation study that investigates the tests' performance under parameter uncertainty, as well as an empirical application of the popular conditional autoregressive Wishart model fitted to data on six stocks traded over eight and a half years.

Paper II derives the Stein-Haff identity for exponential random matrix distributions, a class which for example contains the Wishart distribution. It furthermore applies the derived identity to the matrix-variate gamma distribution, providing an estimator that dominates the maximum likelihood estimator in terms of Stein's loss function. Finally, the theoretical results are supported by a simulation study.

Paper III supplies a novel closed-form estimator for the parameters of the matrix-variate gamma distribution. The estimator appears to have several benefits over the typically applied maximum likelihood estimator, as revealed in a simulation study. Applying the proposed estimator as a start value for the numerical optimization procedure required to find the maximum likelihood estimate is also shown to reduce computation time drastically, when compared to applying arbitrary start values.

Paper IV introduces a new model for discrete time series of realized covariance matrices that obtain as singular. This case occur when the matrix dimension is larger than the number of high frequency returns available for each trading day. As the model naturally appears when a large number of assets are considered, the paper also focuses on maintaining estimation feasibility in high dimensions. The model is fitted to 20 years of high frequency data on 50 stocks, and is evaluated by out-of-sample forecast accuracy, where it outperforms the typically considered GARCH model with high statistical significance.

Paper V is concerned with estimation of the tangency portfolio vector in the case where the number of assets is larger than the available sample size. The estimator contains the Moore-Penrose inverse of a Wishart distributed matrix, an object for which the mean and dispersion matrix are yet to be derived. Although no exact results exist, the paper extends the knowledge of statistical properties in portfolio theory by providing bounds and approximations for the moments of this estimator as well as exact results in special cases. Finally, the properties of the bounds and approximations are investigated through simulations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 2021. p. 51
Keywords
Realized covariance, Autoregressive time-series, Goodness-of-fit test, Matrix singularity, Portfolio theory, Wishart distribution, Matrix-variate gamma distribution, Parameter estimation, High-dimensional data, Moore-Penrose inverse
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-191175 (URN)978-91-7911-460-2 (ISBN)978-91-7911-461-9 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-05-20, online via Zoom, public link is available at the department website, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-04-27 Created: 2021-03-22 Last updated: 2022-09-28Bibliographically approved

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Alfelt, Gustav

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