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Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Public Health Sciences.
Number of Authors: 12021 (English)In: Frontiers in Public Health, E-ISSN 2296-2565, Vol. 9, article id 579948Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the Spanish flu of 1918-1919.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 9, article id 579948
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, mortality, all-cause (overall) mortality, disease outbreak, influenza, SARS-CoV-2
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192467DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.579948ISI: 000624928500001PubMedID: 33681118OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-192467DiVA, id: diva2:1546522
Available from: 2021-04-22 Created: 2021-04-22 Last updated: 2024-09-04Bibliographically approved

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Ledberg, Anders

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