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Understanding the variability of the rainfall dipole in West Africa using the EC-Earth last millennium simulation
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9137-2883
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2409-4035
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6390-0343
Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of History. Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0220-3947
2021 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 57, p. 93-107Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There is a well-known mode of rainfall variability associating opposite hydrological conditions over the Sahel region and the Gulf of Guinea, forming a dipole pattern. Previous meteorological observations show that the dipole pattern varies at interannual timescales. Using an EC-Earth climate model simulation for last millennium (850-1850 CE), we investigate the rainfall variability in West Africa over longer timescales. The 1000-year-long simulation data show that this rainfall dipole presents at decadal to multidecadal and centennial variability and long-term trend. Using the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, we identified that the rainfall dipole present in the first SVD mode with 60% explained variance and associated with the variabilities in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). The second SVD mode shows a monopole rainfall variability pattern centred over the Sahel, associated with the extra-tropical Atlantic SST variability. We conclude that the rainfall dipole-like pattern is a natural variability mode originated from the local ocean-atmosphere-land coupling in the tropical Atlantic basin. The warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean favour an anomalous low pressure at the tropics. This low pressure weakens the meridional pressure gradient between the Saharan Heat Low and the tropical Atlantic. It leads to anomalous northeasterly, reduces the southwesterly moisture flux into the Sahel and confines the Gulf of Guinea's moisture convergence. The influence from extra-tropical climate variability, such as Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, tends to modify the rainfall dipole pattern to a monopole pattern from the Gulf of Guinea to Sahara through influencing the Sahara heat low. External forcing-such as orbital forcing, solar radiation, volcanic and land-use-can amplify/dampen the dipole mode through thermal forcing and atmosphere dynamical feedback.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 57, p. 93-107
Keywords [en]
West Africa rainfall dipole, Decadal to multidecadal variability, EC-Earth, Last millennium, Tropical Atlantic variability, Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192444DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05696-xISI: 000620886400001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-192444DiVA, id: diva2:1546753
Available from: 2021-04-23 Created: 2021-04-23 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Understanding West African Monsoon Variability: Insights from Paleoclimate Modelling of Past Warm Climates
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding West African Monsoon Variability: Insights from Paleoclimate Modelling of Past Warm Climates
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The Sahel, a water-vulnerable region in West Africa, relies heavily on rainfed agriculture. The region experienced pronounced droughts during the 20th Century, emphasising the socio-economic importance of understanding the drivers of the rainfall variability. However, future rainfall projections remain uncertain due to the complex nature of the West African Monsoon (WAM), which is influenced by internal climate variability, external forcing, and feedback processes. Limited observational records in West Africa and the need for longer time series further complicate the understanding of these drivers.

 This thesis uses paleoclimate modelling to investigate internal and external drivers of monsoon variability in West Africa across four distinct periods. Our study confirms that atmosphere-only model simulations can capture the observed multidecadal rainfall variability in the 20th Century, even though reanalyses struggle to reproduce the correct timing. Analysis of a last millennium simulation using the Earth System Model EC-Earth3 identified two drivers of multidecadal rainfall variability, accounting for 90% of the total co-variability between the West African rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This finding strengthens our understanding of SST-WAM relationships observed during the 20th Century. An ensemble of climate model simulations (PlioMIP2) shows that high CO2 levels and a different paleogeography during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period led to increased rainfall and a strengthened WAM. Our study emphasised vegetation's crucial role in enhancing the monsoon in past climates.

 However, simulations forced with prescribed vegetation only capture a one-directional forcing. A mid-Holocene simulation using an Earth System Model with dynamic vegetation revealed that vegetation feedbacks strengthen the WAM response to external orbital forcing but are insufficient to shift the monsoon northward or increase vegetation cover over the Sahara. These results reveal a dry bias and under-representation of simulated vegetation compared to proxy records, highlighting the importance of model development and the need for additional feedback processes in driving an enhanced, northward WAM and extending vegetation to the Sahara.

 Overall, this thesis advances our understanding of the drivers of West African monsoon variability and provides valuable insights for improving future rainfall projections in this vulnerable region.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 2023. p. 50
Series
Dissertations in Physical Geography, ISSN 2003-2358 ; 27
Keywords
West African Monsoon, Monsoon Variability, Paleoclimate, Climate modelling
National Category
Physical Geography Climate Science Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Physical Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216584 (URN)978-91-8014-310-3 (ISBN)978-91-8014-311-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2023-06-09, De Geersalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 14 and online via Zoom: https://stockholmuniversity.zoom.us/j/61869014655, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
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Supervisors
Available from: 2023-05-15 Created: 2023-04-20 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Zhang, QiongBerntell, EllenLi, QiangCharpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik

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