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Mapping the Vulnerability of Arctic Wetlands to Global Warming
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3424-3847
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9408-4425
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7159-1555
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8096-1594
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Number of Authors: 52021 (English)In: Earth's Future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 9, no 5, article id e2020EF001858Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services of local and global importance, but currently there exists no comprehensive, high-quality wetland map for the Arctic region. Improved information about Arctic wetland extents and their vulnerability to climate change is essential for adaptation and mitigation efforts, including for indigenous people dependent on the ecosystem services that wetlands provide, as inadequate planning could result in dire consequences for societies and ecosystems alike. Synthesizing high-resolution wetland databases and datasets on soil wetness and soil types from multiple sources, we created the first high-resolution map with full coverage of Arctic wetlands. We assess the vulnerability of Arctic wetlands for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100, using datasets on permafrost extent, soil types, and projected mean annual air temperature from the HadGEM2-ES climate model for three change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our mapping shows that wetlands cover approximately 3.5 million km(2) or roughly 25% of Arctic landmass and 99% of these wetlands are in permafrost areas, indicating considerable vulnerability to future climate change. Unless global warming is limited to scenario RCP2.6, robust results show that large areas of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to ecosystem regime shifts. If scenario RCP8.5 becomes a reality, at least 50% of the Arctic wetland area would be highly vulnerable to regime shifts with considerable adverse impacts on human health, infrastructure, economics, ecosystems, and biodiversity. The developed wetland and vulnerability maps can aid planning and prioritization of the most vulnerable areas for protection and mitigation of change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 9, no 5, article id e2020EF001858
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Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-195207DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001858ISI: 000656968900012OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-195207DiVA, id: diva2:1583805
Available from: 2021-08-09 Created: 2021-08-09 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Kåresdotter, ElisieDestouni, GeorgiaGhajarnia, NavidHugelius, GustafKalantari, Zahra

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