Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). ROCKWOOL Foundation, Denmark.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0544-9977
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 62021 (English)In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 58, no 4, p. 1373-1399Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 58, no 4, p. 1373-1399
Keywords [en]
Nordic fertility regime, Period fertility, Cohort fertility, Fertility timing, Forecasting
National Category
Sociology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-195474DOI: 10.1215/00703370-9373618ISI: 000681217000009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-195474DiVA, id: diva2:1586027
Funder
Academy of Finland, 294861Academy of Finland, 332863Academy of Finland, 320162The Research Council of Norway, 287634Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2016-07099Available from: 2021-08-18 Created: 2021-08-18 Last updated: 2022-02-28Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Hellstrand, JuliaNisén, JessicaMiranda, VitorFallesen, Peter

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Hellstrand, JuliaNisén, JessicaMiranda, VitorFallesen, PeterMyrskylä, Mikko
By organisation
The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI)
In the same journal
Demography
Sociology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 92 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf