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Future Projections of Petermann Glacier Under Ocean Warming Depend Strongly on Friction Law
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9625-1976
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6046-1488
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9033-3559
Number of Authors: 42021 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface, ISSN 2169-9003, E-ISSN 2169-9011, Vol. 126, no 6, article id e2020JF005921Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Basal friction heavily controls the dynamics of fast-flowing glaciers. However, the best approach to modeling friction is unclear, increasing uncertainties in projections of future mass loss and sea-level rise. Here, we compare six friction laws and evaluate them for Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland, using a higher order three-dimensional ice-sheet model. We model glacier retreat and mass loss under an ocean-only warming until year 2300, while not considering the effects of a future warmer atmosphere. Regardless of the friction law, we find that breakup of Petermann's ice shelf is likely to occur within the next decades. However, future grounding-line retreat differs by 10s of km and estimates of sea-level rise may quadruple, depending on the friction law employed. A bedrock ridge halts the retreat for four of the laws, and Petermann retreats furthest when applying a Budd or a Coulomb-type till law. Depending on the friction law, sea-level contributions differ by 133% and 282% by 2300 for 2 degrees C and 5 degrees C ocean warming scenarios, respectively.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 126, no 6, article id e2020JF005921
Keywords [en]
friction, Greenland, ice sheet, ice shelf, modeling, sea level
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-196145DOI: 10.1029/2020JF005921ISI: 000666410300007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-196145DiVA, id: diva2:1589962
Available from: 2021-09-01 Created: 2021-09-01 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Åkesson, HenningO'Regan, MattJakobsson, Martin

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