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A note on pandemic mortality rates
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7235-384x
Number of Authors: 22022 (English)In: Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, ISSN 0346-1238, E-ISSN 1651-2030, Vol. 2022, no 3, p. 269-278Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper considers a population being affected by a mortality stress during a limited period of time, for example a pandemic. It has recently been suggested that the mortality stress during a pandemic can be viewed as a temporary shift in apparent age. We instead suggest to use a frailty based model where the baseline mortality rate is being stressed. This approach will in a natural way imply post-pandemic mortality rates at the population level. In particular, analytical results concerning the population mortality rate during and after a pandemic are derived. Under general assumptions it is shown that, compared to a non stressed scenario, the mortality is higher during the pandemic and lower after. These general results are exemplified for the Gompertz-Makeham law where more precise results can be obtained using its proportional frailty representation. The results are illustrated based on COVID-19 data for the Swedish population and we estimate the effect of the pandemic on the expected life time of an individual.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 2022, no 3, p. 269-278
Keywords [en]
Proportional frailty, pandemic mortality stress, selection effects, Gompertz-Makeham, COVID-19
National Category
Mathematics Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-196827DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1966830ISI: 000691129600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85113761681OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-196827DiVA, id: diva2:1594703
Available from: 2021-09-16 Created: 2021-09-16 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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