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Regional and Local Impacts of the ENSO and IOD Events of 2015 and 2016 on the Indian Summer Monsoon-A Bhutan Case Study
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0681-0330
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8891-5461
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9137-2883
Number of Authors: 42021 (English)In: Atmosphere, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 12, no 8, article id 954Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a vital role in the livelihoods and economy of those living on the Indian subcontinent, including the small, mountainous country of Bhutan. The ISM fluctuates over varying temporal scales and its variability is related to many internal and external factors including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In 2015, a Super El Nino occurred in the tropical Pacific alongside a positive IOD in the Indian Ocean and was followed in 2016 by a simultaneous La Nina and negative IOD. These events had worldwide repercussions. However, it is unclear how the ISM was affected during this time, both at a regional scale over the whole ISM area and at a local scale over Bhutan. First, an evaluation of data products comparing ERA5 reanalysis, TRMM and GPM satellite, and GPCC precipitation products against weather station measurements from Bhutan, indicated that ERA5 reanalysis was suitable to investigate ISM change in these two years. The reanalysis datasets showed that there was disruption to the ISM during this period, with a late onset of the monsoon in 2015, a shifted monsoon flow in July 2015 and in August 2016, and a late withdrawal in 2016. However, this resulted in neither a monsoon surplus nor a deficit across both years but instead large spatial-temporal variability. It is possible to attribute some of the regional scale changes to the ENSO and IOD events, but the expected impact of a simultaneous ENSO and IOD events are not recognizable. It is likely that 2015/16 monsoon disruption was driven by a combination of factors alongside ENSO and the IOD, including varying boundary conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, and more. At a local scale, the intricate topography and orographic processes ongoing within Bhutan further amplified or dampened the already altered ISM.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 12, no 8, article id 954
Keywords [en]
ENSO, IOD, monsoon, Bhutan
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197511DOI: 10.3390/atmos12080954ISI: 000688790800001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-197511DiVA, id: diva2:1600641
Available from: 2021-10-05 Created: 2021-10-05 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Power, KatherineAxelsson, JosefineZhang, Qiong

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