Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Robust Worst-Case Scenarios from Ensemble Forecasts
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Know-Center GmbH, Austria.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6314-8833
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Uppsala University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2032-5211
Number of Authors: 32021 (English)In: Weather and forecasting, ISSN 0882-8156, E-ISSN 1520-0434, Vol. 36, no 4, p. 1357-1373Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To extract the most information from an ensemble forecast, users would need to consider the possible impacts of every member in the ensemble. However, not all users have the resources to do this. Many may opt to consider only the ensemble mean and possibly some measure of spread around the mean. This provides little information about potential worst-case scenarios. We explore different methods to extract worst-case scenarios from an ensemble forecast, for a given definition of severity of impact: taking the worst member of the ensemble, calculating the mean of the N worst members, and two methods that use a statistical tool known as directional component analysis (DCA). We assess the advantages and disadvantages of the four methods in terms of whether they produce spatial worst-case scenarios that are not overly sensitive to the finite size and randomness of the ensemble or small changes in the chosen geographical domain. The methods are tested on synthetic data and on temperature forecasts from ECMWF. The mean of the N worst members is more robust than the worst member, while the DCA-based patterns are more robust than either. Furthermore, if the ensemble variability is well described by the covariance matrix, the DCA patterns have the statistical property that they are just as severe as those from the other two methods, but more likely. We conclude that the DCA approach is a tool that could be routinely applied to extract worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 36, no 4, p. 1357-1373
Keywords [en]
Ensembles, Operational forecasting, Probability forecasts, models, distribution, Decision support
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197685DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0219.1ISI: 000683897700012OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-197685DiVA, id: diva2:1603066
Available from: 2021-10-14 Created: 2021-10-14 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Scher, SebastianMessori, Gabriele

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Scher, SebastianMessori, Gabriele
By organisation
Department of Meteorology
In the same journal
Weather and forecasting
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 34 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf