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Is there a link between all-cause mortality and economic fluctuations?
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8540-8766
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5746-7723
Number of Authors: 22022 (English)In: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1403-4948, E-ISSN 1651-1905, Vol. 50, no 1, p. 6-15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: All-cause mortality is a global indicator of the overall health of the population, and its relation to the macro economy is thus of vital interest. The main aim was to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Variations in the unemployment rate were used as indicator of temporary fluctuations in the economy. Methods: We used time-series data for 21 OECD countries spanning the period 1960–2018. We used four outcomes: total mortality (0+), infant mortality (<1), mortality in the age-group 20–64, and old-age mortality (65+). Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. Unemployment data (% unemployed in the work force) were sourced from Eurostat. We applied error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and the long-term impact of macroeconomic change on all-cause mortality. Results: We found that increases in unemployment were statistically significantly associated with decreases in all mortality outcomes except old-age mortality. Increases in GDP were associated with significant lowering long-term effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that an increase in unemployment leads to a decrease in all-cause mortality. However, economic growth, as indicated by increased GDP, has a long-term protective health impact as indexed by lowered mortality.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 50, no 1, p. 6-15
Keywords [en]
all-cause mortality, GDP, unemployment, Great Recession, error correction model
National Category
Sociology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198159DOI: 10.1177/14034948211049979ISI: 000710264800001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-198159DiVA, id: diva2:1607193
Funder
Forte, Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare, 2013-0376Swedish Research Council, 421-2012-5503Available from: 2021-10-29 Created: 2021-10-29 Last updated: 2022-04-05Bibliographically approved

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Dadgar, ImanNorström, Thor

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