Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Mid-Pliocene West African Monsoon rainfall as simulated in the PlioMIP2 ensemble
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6390-0343
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 292021 (English)In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 17, no 4, p. 1777-1794Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; ∼3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar to modern geography and ∼400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble, we analyse changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP by comparing them with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase in the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region, with an average increase of 2.5 mm/d, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90 % of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Though previous studies of future projections indicate a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase in that region in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We note that this effect will further depend on the long-term response of the vegetation to the CO2 forcing.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 17, no 4, p. 1777-1794
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198319DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021ISI: 000691998900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-198319DiVA, id: diva2:1609258
Available from: 2021-11-08 Created: 2021-11-08 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Understanding West African Monsoon Variability: Insights from Paleoclimate Modelling of Past Warm Climates
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding West African Monsoon Variability: Insights from Paleoclimate Modelling of Past Warm Climates
2023 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The Sahel, a water-vulnerable region in West Africa, relies heavily on rainfed agriculture. The region experienced pronounced droughts during the 20th Century, emphasising the socio-economic importance of understanding the drivers of the rainfall variability. However, future rainfall projections remain uncertain due to the complex nature of the West African Monsoon (WAM), which is influenced by internal climate variability, external forcing, and feedback processes. Limited observational records in West Africa and the need for longer time series further complicate the understanding of these drivers.

 This thesis uses paleoclimate modelling to investigate internal and external drivers of monsoon variability in West Africa across four distinct periods. Our study confirms that atmosphere-only model simulations can capture the observed multidecadal rainfall variability in the 20th Century, even though reanalyses struggle to reproduce the correct timing. Analysis of a last millennium simulation using the Earth System Model EC-Earth3 identified two drivers of multidecadal rainfall variability, accounting for 90% of the total co-variability between the West African rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This finding strengthens our understanding of SST-WAM relationships observed during the 20th Century. An ensemble of climate model simulations (PlioMIP2) shows that high CO2 levels and a different paleogeography during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period led to increased rainfall and a strengthened WAM. Our study emphasised vegetation's crucial role in enhancing the monsoon in past climates.

 However, simulations forced with prescribed vegetation only capture a one-directional forcing. A mid-Holocene simulation using an Earth System Model with dynamic vegetation revealed that vegetation feedbacks strengthen the WAM response to external orbital forcing but are insufficient to shift the monsoon northward or increase vegetation cover over the Sahara. These results reveal a dry bias and under-representation of simulated vegetation compared to proxy records, highlighting the importance of model development and the need for additional feedback processes in driving an enhanced, northward WAM and extending vegetation to the Sahara.

 Overall, this thesis advances our understanding of the drivers of West African monsoon variability and provides valuable insights for improving future rainfall projections in this vulnerable region.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 2023. p. 50
Series
Dissertations in Physical Geography, ISSN 2003-2358 ; 27
Keywords
West African Monsoon, Monsoon Variability, Paleoclimate, Climate modelling
National Category
Physical Geography Climate Science Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Physical Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216584 (URN)978-91-8014-310-3 (ISBN)978-91-8014-311-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2023-06-09, De Geersalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 14 and online via Zoom: https://stockholmuniversity.zoom.us/j/61869014655, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2023-05-15 Created: 2023-04-20 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Berntell, EllenZhang, QiongLi, QiangHunter, Stephen J.Li, Xiangyu

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Berntell, EllenZhang, QiongLi, QiangHunter, Stephen J.Li, Xiangyu
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography
In the same journal
Climate of the Past
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 83 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf