Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050
2007 (English)In: International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, Vol. 23, no 4, 553-567 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. Fairly robust correlations between age structure, GDP and GDP growth have been discovered in current data. In this paper we use these two facts to study the forecasting properties of previous termdemographically basednext term models. Extending the previous termforecastsnext term to 2050 suggests that, due to projected fertility decreases, the poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies, in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. This remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier B.V. , 2007. Vol. 23, no 4, 553-567 p.
Long-term forecasting; Panel data; Life expectancy; Catch-up; Age effects
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-8765DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.07.005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-8765DiVA: diva2:175284