Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention.
2005 (English)In: Statistics in Medicine, ISSN 0277-6715, Vol. 24, no 23, 3593-607 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malmöhus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. Vol. 24, no 23, 3593-607 p.
Biometry, Child Day Care Centers, Child; Preschool, Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control/statistics & numerical data, Humans, Likelihood Functions, Models; Statistical, Penicillin Resistance, Pneumococcal Infections/epidemiology/prevention & control/*transmission, Seasons, Stochastic Processes, Streptococcus pneumoniae/drug effects, Sweden/epidemiology
Probability Theory and Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-10455PubMedID: 16025551OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-10455DiVA: diva2:176974