Alcohol and fatal accidents in the United States - - a time series analysis for 1950-2002
2007 (English)Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Aims. To estimate the association between per capita alcohol consumption and fatal accidents in the United States and to compare the outcome with findings from Europe and Canada. Data and method. Yearly data on fatal accidents by gender and age were analysed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption for 1950-2002 using the Box-Jenkins technique for time series analysis. Findings. A one-litre increase in per capita consumption was on average followed by 4.4 male deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, but had no significant effect on female accident mortality. Regarding specific categories of accidents, the effect on fatal motor vehicle accidents accounted for a large part of the overall effect for men and was also significant for women. With respect to fatal falling accidents and other accidents, the only significant effects were found among young males. In comparison with Europe, the extent to which changes in per capita consumption cause accidents in the United States is similar to the pattern for Northern Europe, particularly regarding overall accidents, whereas for falls and traffic accidents, the results are similar to those for Southern Europe. In comparison with Canada, a one-litre change in per capita consumption causes about the same amount of change in accidents overall and motor vehicle accidents, but fewer accidental falls and other accidents. Conclusions. Per capita alcohol consumption has at least partly been an explanation for the development of male fatal accidents and particularly motor vehicle accident rates in the post-war United States. A high traffic density and relatively soft BAC laws are suggested to explain the strong association found between alcohol and fatal motor vehicle accidents. The results also suggest that a reduction in per capita consumption would have its most preventive impact on fatal accidents in younger males.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-11702OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-11702DiVA: diva2:178221
Paper presented at ICAA Jubilee Conference, Stockholm 2007 50th International ICAA Conference on Dependencies, Stockholm, Sweden. 10-15 June, 20072008-01-142008-01-14Bibliographically approved