Trends in recent temperature and radial tree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia.
2008 (English)In: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, ISSN 0962-8436, Vol. 363, 2271-2284 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
This paper describes variability in trends of annual tree growth at several locations in the high latitudes of Eurasia, providing a wide regional comparison over a 2000-year period. The study focuses on the nature of local and widespread tree-growth responses to recent warming seen in instrumental observations, available in northern regions for periods ranging from decades to a century. Instrumental temperature data demonstrate differences in seasonal scale of Eurasian warming and the complexity and spatial diversity of tree-growing-season trends in recent decades. A set of long tree-ring chronologies provides empirical evidence of association between inter-annual tree growth and local, primarily summer, temperature variability at each location. These data show no evidence of a recent breakdown in this association as has been found at other high-latitude Northern Hemisphere locations. Using Kendall's concordance, we quantify the time-dependent relationship between growth trends of the long chronologies as a group. This provides strong evidence that the extent of recent widespread warming across northwest Eurasia, with respect to 100- to 200-year trends, is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. An equivalent analysis of simulated temperatures using the HadCM3 model fails to show a similar increase in concordance expected as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 363, 2271-2284 p.
climate change, Eurasia, tree-ring chronology, temperature
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-12861DOI: doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2199ISI: 000256141100004PubMedID: 18048299OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-12861DiVA: diva2:179381