The Psychology of economic forecasting: A possibility for cooperation between JDM and NDM theories?
2005 (English)In: How professionals make decisions., Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ , 2005, 119-122 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Data on actual and forecasted GNPs made by professional economists for Sweden during the time period 1970-2000 were analyzed with respect accuracy and psychological mechanisms underlying the forecasts. Correlations between actual and forecasted GNPSs were relatively high in a short time perspective (one year ahead). However, a number judgmental biases (optimist, anchoring and adjustment, and availability bias) were identified in the forecasts, which suggests a possibility to correct economic forecasts for such biases in order to improve their accuracy.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ , 2005. 119-122 p.
naturalistic decision making, forecasting, economics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-13580OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-13580DiVA: diva2:180100