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The Psychology of economic forecasting: A possibility for cooperation between JDM and NDM theories?
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
2005 (English)In: How professionals make decisions., Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ , 2005, 119-122 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Data on actual and forecasted GNPs made by professional economists for Sweden during the time period 1970-2000 were analyzed with respect accuracy and psychological mechanisms underlying the forecasts. Correlations between actual and forecasted GNPSs were relatively high in a short time perspective (one year ahead). However, a number judgmental biases (optimist, anchoring and adjustment, and availability bias) were identified in the forecasts, which suggests a possibility to correct economic forecasts for such biases in order to improve their accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ , 2005. 119-122 p.
Keyword [en]
naturalistic decision making, forecasting, economics
National Category
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-13580OAI: diva2:180100
Available from: 2008-04-11 Created: 2008-04-11Bibliographically approved

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Montgomery, Henry
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