Forecasting Global Income Growth Using Age-Structure
2006 (English)In: AGE-STRUCTURAL TRANSITIONS:, CICRED, Paris , 2006, 59-82 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Demographic projections of age structure provide the best infor-
mation available on long-term human resources and demand.
In current analyses fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been identified. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CICRED, Paris , 2006. 59-82 p.
Sociology (excluding Social work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) Economics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-20596ISBN: ISBN: 2-910053-27-XOAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-20596DiVA: diva2:187122