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Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Human Geography.
2006 (English)In: Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper, no 2006037., 36- p.Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.)) Published
Abstract [en]

Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by confronting them to Swedish data. We first stimulate an endogenous growth. Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality. Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. no 2006037., 36- p.
National Category
Sociology (excluding Social work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) Economic History Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-20607OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-20607DiVA: diva2:187133
Note
Other versions of this item: * Paper de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2006. "Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society," Arbetsrapport 2006:9, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]Available from: 2007-03-30 Created: 2007-03-30 Last updated: 2011-01-11Bibliographically approved

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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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