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A Workflow for Generating Patient Counterfactuals in Lung Transplant Recipients
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4632-4815
Number of Authors: 32023 (English)In: Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases: International Workshops of ECML PKDD 2022, Grenoble, France, September 19–23, 2022, Proceedings, Part II / [ed] Irena Koprinska, Paolo Mignone, Riccardo Guidotti, Szymon Jaroszewicz, Holger Fröning, Francesco Gullo, Pedro M. Ferreira, Damian Roqueiro, Gaia Ceddia, Slawomir Nowaczyk, João Gama, Rita Ribeiro, Ricard Gavaldà, Elio Masciari, Zbigniew Ras, Ettore Ritacco, Francesca Naretto, Andreas Theissler, Przemyslaw Biecek, Wouter Verbeke, Gregor Schiele, Franz Pernkopf, Michaela Blott, Ilaria Bordino, Ivan Luciano Danesi, Giovanni Ponti, Lorenzo Severini, Annalisa Appice, Giuseppina Andresini, Ibéria Medeiros, Guilherme Graça, Lee Cooper, Naghmeh Ghazaleh, Jonas Richiardi, Diego Saldana, Konstantinos Sechidis, Arif Canakoglu, Sara Pido, Pietro Pinoli, Albert Bifet, Sepideh Pashami, Springer Nature , 2023, p. 291-306Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Lung transplantation is a critical procedure performed in end-stage pulmonary patients. The number of lung transplantations performed in the USA in the last decade has been rising, but the survival rate is still lower than that of other solid organ transplantations. First, this study aims to employ machine learning models to predict patient survival after lung transplantation. Additionally, the aim is to generate counterfactual explanations based on these predictions to help clinicians and patients understand the changes needed to increase the probability of survival after the transplantation and better comply with normative requirements. We use data derived from the UNOS database, particularly the lung transplantations performed in the USA between 2019 and 2021. We formulate the problem and define two data representations, with the first being a representation that describes only the lung recipients and the second the recipients and donors. We propose an explainable ML workflow for predicting patient survival after lung transplantation. We evaluate the workflow based on various performance metrics, using five classification models and two counterfactual generation methods. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of explainable ML for resource allocation, predicting patient mortality, and generating explainable predictions for lung transplantation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature , 2023. p. 291-306
Series
Communications in Computer and Information Science, ISSN 1865-0929, E-ISSN 1865-0937 ; 1753
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-232091DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-23633-4_20ISI: 000967761200020Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85149952714ISBN: 978-3-031-23632-7 (print)ISBN: 978-3-031-23633-4 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-232091DiVA, id: diva2:1885703
Conference
Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, nternational Workshops of ECML PKDD 2022, Grenoble, France, September 19–23, 2022.
Available from: 2024-07-24 Created: 2024-07-24 Last updated: 2024-07-29Bibliographically approved

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Rugolon, FrancoBampa, MariaPapapetrou, Panagiotis

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