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Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2002 (English)In: Applied Simulation and Modelling: Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference / [ed] L. Ubertini, Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We argue that integrated catastrophe models are useful for policy decisions, for which a large degree of uncertainty is a natural ingredient. Recently, much attention has been given to the financial management of natural disasters. This article describes the results of a case study performed in northeastern Hungary where different flood management strategies have been explored and compared using an integrated catastrophe model. The area used for the pilot study is the Palad-Csecsei basin (the Pilot basin) where 4 621 persons live. The Pilot basin is located in the Upper Tisza region. An executable and geographically explicit model has been developed, linking hydrological, geographical, financial, and social data. The outcomes of the policy simulations are represented at different granularity-levels; the individual, the aggregated (entire basin), and the governmental.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002.
Keyword [en]
flood-management, catastrophe, simulation, insurance, integrated models, risk
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23861ISBN: 0-88986-334-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-23861DiVA: diva2:195017
Conference
IASTED International Conference on Applied Simulation and Modelling, June 25 – 28, 2002, Crete, Greece
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-10-01Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
2005 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH), 2005
Series
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Keyword
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525 (URN)91-7155-076-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10Bibliographically approved

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http://www.actapress.com/Abstract.aspx?paperId=25426http://people.dsv.su.se/~lisa/version%203%20MAJ-02-Crete.pdf

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