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MicroWorlds as a Tool for Policy Making
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2001 (English)Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The Hungarian government is experiencing escalating costs for ood mitigation

measures and for economical compensation to victims. In a joint

research project between the International Institute of Applied System Analysis

(IIASA) in Austria, Computer and System Science Department (DSV)

in Sweden, and the Hungarian Academy of Science, the ooding problem of

Upper Tisza in Hungary is investigated. A catastrophe simulation model has

been implemented, where dierent policy options are tested and evaluated.

We investigate how the willingness to buy insurance aects the results on

the macro-level and on the micro-level.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23862OAI: diva2:195018
1st International Workshop on Cognitive Research With Microworlds
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-11-06Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
2005 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH), 2005
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
National Category
Computer Science
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525 (URN)91-7155-076-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10Bibliographically approved

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