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Applying the Consumat Model to Flood Management Policies
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2003 (English)In: Agent-based simulation, 2003Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The number and severity of weather related catastrophes is

increasing. Economic losses from these catastrophes are

escalating, mainly as a result of concentration of assets and

population in high-risk areas. How to deal with these

economic liabilities in a fair way at the level of the individual

property owners is the focus of our research.

As a case study we choose the Tisza, a river in Hungary that

flows through one of the poorest agricultural regions of

Europe that frequently floods. The use of a simulation model

for evaluating alternative flood management policies is a

natural choice, since it is impossible to predict the time,

location and magnitude of a flood; historical data is of limited

use when looking at the outcome of future policies. The

behaviour of the river and the financial consequences are

simulated on a year-by-year basis.

Here we have extended the simulation model by using the

Consumat approach to model the individual property owners.

We compare the results with respect to wealth distribution in

the case of Consumat agents and simple (non-Consumat)

agents. In the Consumat case, the results show that system is

more dynamic and more realistic.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Keyword [en]
Agents, Psychological Models of Decision Making, Wealth Distribution, Catastrophe Modelling, Flooding
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23863OAI: diva2:195019
Agent-based simulation (Montpellier, 2003)

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-10-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
2005 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH), 2005
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
National Category
Computer Science
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525 (URN)91-7155-076-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10Bibliographically approved

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