Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2005 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH) , 2005.
Series
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Keyword [en]
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525ISBN: 91-7155-076-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-525DiVA: diva2:195024
Public defence
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Spatial and Dynamic Modelling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Spatial and Dynamic Modelling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza
2003 (English)Report (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Flood management policy has been the subject of an international joint research

project with the Upper Tisza in Hungary as its pilot study area. Design specications

for a geographically explicit simulation model are presented. Potential flood

management policies, based on surveys and interviews with stakeholders, are presented.

Some experiments on an executable prototype of the simulation model are

also reported on, where the consequences of flood management policies are investigated.

Focus has been on nancial policy measures, mainly insurance. Besides

more traditional evaluation of policy scenarios, the model incorporates adaptive

optimisation functionality. The report incorporates three contributions:

1. the insurance policy issue in Hungary is framed in the broader context of flood

management

2. the structuring of a flood risk policy model, capable of simulating flood failures

and estimating the economic consequences

3. reports from policy experiments performed on the implemented prototype

flood risk policy model

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2003. 39 p.
Series
Interim report / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 03-002
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23860 (URN)
Note

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-09-30Bibliographically approved
2. Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study
2002 (English)In: Applied Simulation and Modelling: Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference / [ed] L. Ubertini, Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We argue that integrated catastrophe models are useful for policy decisions, for which a large degree of uncertainty is a natural ingredient. Recently, much attention has been given to the financial management of natural disasters. This article describes the results of a case study performed in northeastern Hungary where different flood management strategies have been explored and compared using an integrated catastrophe model. The area used for the pilot study is the Palad-Csecsei basin (the Pilot basin) where 4 621 persons live. The Pilot basin is located in the Upper Tisza region. An executable and geographically explicit model has been developed, linking hydrological, geographical, financial, and social data. The outcomes of the policy simulations are represented at different granularity-levels; the individual, the aggregated (entire basin), and the governmental.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Anaheim: Acta Press, 2002
Keyword
flood-management, catastrophe, simulation, insurance, integrated models, risk
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23861 (URN)0-88986-334-2 (ISBN)
Conference
IASTED International Conference on Applied Simulation and Modelling, June 25 – 28, 2002, Crete, Greece
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-10-01Bibliographically approved
3. MicroWorlds as a Tool for Policy Making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>MicroWorlds as a Tool for Policy Making
2001 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The Hungarian government is experiencing escalating costs for ood mitigation

measures and for economical compensation to victims. In a joint

research project between the International Institute of Applied System Analysis

(IIASA) in Austria, Computer and System Science Department (DSV)

in Sweden, and the Hungarian Academy of Science, the ooding problem of

Upper Tisza in Hungary is investigated. A catastrophe simulation model has

been implemented, where dierent policy options are tested and evaluated.

We investigate how the willingness to buy insurance aects the results on

the macro-level and on the micro-level.

National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23862 (URN)
Conference
1st International Workshop on Cognitive Research With Microworlds
Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-11-06Bibliographically approved
4. Applying the Consumat Model to Flood Management Policies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Applying the Consumat Model to Flood Management Policies
2003 (English)In: Agent-based simulation, 2003Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The number and severity of weather related catastrophes is

increasing. Economic losses from these catastrophes are

escalating, mainly as a result of concentration of assets and

population in high-risk areas. How to deal with these

economic liabilities in a fair way at the level of the individual

property owners is the focus of our research.

As a case study we choose the Tisza, a river in Hungary that

flows through one of the poorest agricultural regions of

Europe that frequently floods. The use of a simulation model

for evaluating alternative flood management policies is a

natural choice, since it is impossible to predict the time,

location and magnitude of a flood; historical data is of limited

use when looking at the outcome of future policies. The

behaviour of the river and the financial consequences are

simulated on a year-by-year basis.

Here we have extended the simulation model by using the

Consumat approach to model the individual property owners.

We compare the results with respect to wealth distribution in

the case of Consumat agents and simple (non-Consumat)

agents. In the Consumat case, the results show that system is

more dynamic and more realistic.

Keyword
Agents, Psychological Models of Decision Making, Wealth Distribution, Catastrophe Modelling, Flooding
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23863 (URN)
Conference
Agent-based simulation (Montpellier, 2003)
Note

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-10-14Bibliographically approved
5. Multi-Criteria Decision-Making of Policy Strategies with Public-Private Re-Insurance Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-Criteria Decision-Making of Policy Strategies with Public-Private Re-Insurance Systems
2004 In: Risk Decision and Policy, Vol. 9, no 1, 23-45 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23864 (URN)
Note
Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10Bibliographically approved
6. Consensus by Simulation: A Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Consensus by Simulation: A Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making
Manuscript (Other academic)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23865 (URN)
Note
Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2010-01-13Bibliographically approved
7. MicroPox: A Large-Scale and Spatially Explicit Microsimulation Model for Smallpox Planning
Open this publication in new window or tab >>MicroPox: A Large-Scale and Spatially Explicit Microsimulation Model for Smallpox Planning
2005 (English)In: The Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation / [ed] V. Ingalls, San Diego, Calif., 2005, 70-76 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
San Diego, Calif.: , 2005
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23866 (URN)
Conference
International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation
Note

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2014-10-14Bibliographically approved
8. The Functional Form of an Epidemic in a Real-World Contact Network
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Functional Form of an Epidemic in a Real-World Contact Network
Manuscript (Other academic)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23867 (URN)
Note
Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525Available from: 2005-05-10 Created: 2005-05-10 Last updated: 2010-01-13Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(843 kB)579 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 843 kBChecksum SHA-1
17b1b637e8a5921bf12f98bdeff6ba023dcd48f83139e01c86cbda3fb1e294ed25ed22a8
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences
Computer Science

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 579 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 1764 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf