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Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM). (Air research unit)
2009 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The main objectives of this thesis were to investigate the dependency of European air pollution on climate variability and emission source region. Calculations with a chemistry transport model (CTM) were conducted to investigate the influence of climate variability. The CTM was forced by both simulated past (a re-analysis spanning 1958-2001) and future (a climate simulation spanning 1961-2100) meteorology keeping anthropogenic emissions constant. To investigate the influence of emission source region emissions were varied in western, eastern and northern Europe in seven-year (1997-2003) simulations.

The main conclusions in this thesis are

§         There is variability in air pollution due to climate variability on time scales from year to year to decades and long-term trends. Hence, what is measured now will not be valid in a decade, or even next year.

§         Interannual variability in air pollution due to climate variability is greater than interannual variability in anthropogenic emissions.

§         The extreme conditions in 2003, resulting in elevated surface O3 concentrations, could be an indication on what we can expect in the future.

§         The trend in surface O3 over the past due to climate change is similar to the projected trend due to future climate change: increasing in south-western and central Europe and decreasing in north-eastern Europe.

§         Changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition dependency on soil moisture are of importance for changes in surface O3 in central and southern Europe. It is vital to include these processes, especially the latter in climate change effect studies of surface O3.

§         This work indicates that it is of greater importance for health benefits of the European population to reduce primary PM emissions than precursors of secondary inorganic aerosol under the assumption of higher relative risk for primary PM. This is especially the case in western Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University , 2009. , 55 p.
Keyword [en]
Acidification, Air Pollution, Climate Change, Europe, Numerical Model, Emission, Eutrophication, Key region, Nitrogen Dioxide, Particulate Matter, PM, Source region, Surface Ozone, Tropospheric Ozone
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25947ISBN: 978-91-7155-828-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-25947DiVA: diva2:201017
Public defence
2009-04-03, William Olssonsalen, Svante Arrhenius väg 8A, Geovetenskapens hus, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-03-12 Created: 2009-03-02 Last updated: 2009-03-23Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Inter-annual variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe during 1958-2003 simulated with a regional CTM
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Inter-annual variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe during 1958-2003 simulated with a regional CTM
2007 (English)In: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, ISSN 0049-6979, E-ISSN 1573-2932, Vol. 7, 15-23 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Abstract Inter-annual variability of surface ozone(O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over Europe hasbeen studied over the period 1958-2003 using athree-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model coupledto meteorological data from the ERA40 data setproduced at the European Centre of Medium-rangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF). Emissions and boundaryconditions were kept at present levels throughoutthe simulation period. It was found that the annualmean NO2 concentration varies between ±50% andthe summer mean O3 concentration varies between-10 and +20 percent (%) compared to the 46-yearaverage over the model domain. There is alsovariation in ozone and NO2 over longer time scales.The last 22 years display high concentrations ofozone in central and south-western Europe and lowconcentrations in north-eastern Europe. The first22 years display very high concentrations of NO2over the North Sea. There is indication of trends inozone and nitrogen dioxide but this has to beinvestigated further. Such information is one factorthat should be taken into account when consideringfuture control strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Netherlands: Springer, 2007
Keyword
air pollution, MATCH, meteorological variability, policy, simulation
National Category
Natural Sciences Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25944 (URN)10.1007/s11267-006-9088-4 (DOI)
Available from: 2009-03-02 Created: 2009-03-02 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
2. Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958–2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958–2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis
2007 (English)In: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology, ISSN 0280-6509, E-ISSN 1600-0889, Vol. 59, 77-98 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A three-dimensional Chemistry Transport Model was used to study the meteorologically induced interannual variability and trends in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen as well as concentrations of surface ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) and its constituents over Europe during 1958–2001. The model was coupled to the meteorological reanalysis ERA40, produced at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Emissions and boundary conditions of chemical compounds and PM were kept constant at present levels.

The average European interannual variation, due to meteorological variability, ranges from 3% for O3, 5%for NO2, 9% for PM, 6–9% for dry deposition, to about 20% for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. For the period 1979–2001 the trend in ozone, due to climate variability is increasing in central and southwestern Europe and decreasing in northeastern Europe, the trend in NO2 is approximately opposite. The trend in PM is positive in eastern Europe. There are negative trends in wet deposition in southwestern and central Europe and positive trends in dry deposition overall. A bias in ERA40 precipitation could be partly responsible for the trends. The variation and trends need to be considered when interpreting measurements and designing measurement campaigns.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Tellus, 2007
National Category
Natural Sciences Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25946 (URN)10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00196.x (DOI)000243681100008 ()
Available from: 2009-03-02 Created: 2009-03-02 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
3. Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change
2009 (English)In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, 226-237 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present estimates of the present and future deposition of atmospheric nitrogen into the Baltic Sea made using the Eulerian chemical transport model MATCH, and compare these with earlier model estimates. The average total nitrogen deposition for periods of five to ten years from 1992 to 2001 was estimated to be in the range of 261–300 Gg N yr–1.The deposition across the whole catchment area for 2001 was estimated to be 1.55–1.73 Tg N yr–1. Inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea was calculated to be in the range of 5.1%–8.0%. Investigating one climate change scenario using emissions for year 2000 indicated a rather small impact on total deposition of nitrogen due to climate change, i.e. increase of total nitrogen deposition by ~5% by the end of the 21st century as compared with present conditions. The combined effect of climate change and future changes in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere remains an open question. Additional climate change scenarios using different combinations of global and regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios need to be explored.

National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25964 (URN)000264429500022 ()
Available from: 2009-03-03 Created: 2009-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
4. European ozone in a future climate: The importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>European ozone in a future climate: The importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions
2010 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 115, D02303- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

[1] Using a regional chemistry transport model (CTM) driven with meteorological data from a regional climate model (A2 emission scenario) we have investigated important processes for determining surface ozone concentration across Europe in a future climate. Anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions were kept constant (year 2000) to isolate the effect of climate change from 1961-1990 to 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Biogenic isoprene emissions were calculated on-line. The results point to substantial increase in daily mean and daily maximum surface ozone over central and southern Europe. The importance of changes in natural isoprene emissions and dry deposition were investigated especially.[2] The isoprene emissions increased by a factor of about 1.8 from the current to the second future period. However, a sensitivity study using a sophisticated rescaling of isoprene emissions shows that the large increase in isoprene emission is of moderate importance in southern Europe for the strong increase in surface ozone (it can explain up to 30% of the change in central, southern and western Europe).[3] The soil-moisture dependent ozone dry deposition formulation and changes in snow cover, affecting the dry deposition, are more important processes: soil moisture dependence explains up to 80% of the change in Spain. Therefore it is vital to include soil moisture dependence in a model study of this type. Isoprene emissions are of less importance (0-30% in central and southern Europe), but not dismissible and should definitely be emitted on-line in climate-ozone projection studies.

National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25965 (URN)10.1029/2008JD011690 (DOI)000273900100001 ()
Available from: 2009-03-03 Created: 2009-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
5. Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe – longterm simulations of source-region and shipping contributions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe – longterm simulations of source-region and shipping contributions
2009 (English)In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 43, no 22-23, 3614-3620 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM2.5) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe during 1997–2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared.

WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM2.5 and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM2.5 is much higher (43% of total PPM2.5) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM2.5 is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM2.5 concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM2.5 and SIA in Europe.

The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301 000 per year due to PPM2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM2.5 components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM2.5). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.

Keyword
Emission, exposure, long-range transport, key region, PM
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25967 (URN)10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.03.040 (DOI)000267964300021 ()
Available from: 2009-03-03 Created: 2009-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved

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