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Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
2009 (English)In: Boreal environment research, ISSN 1239-6095, E-ISSN 1797-2469, Vol. 14, 226-237 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present estimates of the present and future deposition of atmospheric nitrogen into the Baltic Sea made using the Eulerian chemical transport model MATCH, and compare these with earlier model estimates. The average total nitrogen deposition for periods of five to ten years from 1992 to 2001 was estimated to be in the range of 261–300 Gg N yr–1.The deposition across the whole catchment area for 2001 was estimated to be 1.55–1.73 Tg N yr–1. Inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea was calculated to be in the range of 5.1%–8.0%. Investigating one climate change scenario using emissions for year 2000 indicated a rather small impact on total deposition of nitrogen due to climate change, i.e. increase of total nitrogen deposition by ~5% by the end of the 21st century as compared with present conditions. The combined effect of climate change and future changes in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere remains an open question. Additional climate change scenarios using different combinations of global and regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios need to be explored.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 14, 226-237 p.
National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25964ISI: 000264429500022OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-25964DiVA: diva2:201166
Available from: 2009-03-03 Created: 2009-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
2009 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The main objectives of this thesis were to investigate the dependency of European air pollution on climate variability and emission source region. Calculations with a chemistry transport model (CTM) were conducted to investigate the influence of climate variability. The CTM was forced by both simulated past (a re-analysis spanning 1958-2001) and future (a climate simulation spanning 1961-2100) meteorology keeping anthropogenic emissions constant. To investigate the influence of emission source region emissions were varied in western, eastern and northern Europe in seven-year (1997-2003) simulations.

The main conclusions in this thesis are

§         There is variability in air pollution due to climate variability on time scales from year to year to decades and long-term trends. Hence, what is measured now will not be valid in a decade, or even next year.

§         Interannual variability in air pollution due to climate variability is greater than interannual variability in anthropogenic emissions.

§         The extreme conditions in 2003, resulting in elevated surface O3 concentrations, could be an indication on what we can expect in the future.

§         The trend in surface O3 over the past due to climate change is similar to the projected trend due to future climate change: increasing in south-western and central Europe and decreasing in north-eastern Europe.

§         Changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition dependency on soil moisture are of importance for changes in surface O3 in central and southern Europe. It is vital to include these processes, especially the latter in climate change effect studies of surface O3.

§         This work indicates that it is of greater importance for health benefits of the European population to reduce primary PM emissions than precursors of secondary inorganic aerosol under the assumption of higher relative risk for primary PM. This is especially the case in western Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, 2009. 55 p.
Keyword
Acidification, Air Pollution, Climate Change, Europe, Numerical Model, Emission, Eutrophication, Key region, Nitrogen Dioxide, Particulate Matter, PM, Source region, Surface Ozone, Tropospheric Ozone
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25947 (URN)978-91-7155-828-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2009-04-03, William Olssonsalen, Svante Arrhenius väg 8A, Geovetenskapens hus, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-03-12 Created: 2009-03-02 Last updated: 2009-03-23Bibliographically approved

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