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European ozone in a future climate: The importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
2010 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 115, D02303- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

[1] Using a regional chemistry transport model (CTM) driven with meteorological data from a regional climate model (A2 emission scenario) we have investigated important processes for determining surface ozone concentration across Europe in a future climate. Anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions were kept constant (year 2000) to isolate the effect of climate change from 1961-1990 to 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Biogenic isoprene emissions were calculated on-line. The results point to substantial increase in daily mean and daily maximum surface ozone over central and southern Europe. The importance of changes in natural isoprene emissions and dry deposition were investigated especially.[2] The isoprene emissions increased by a factor of about 1.8 from the current to the second future period. However, a sensitivity study using a sophisticated rescaling of isoprene emissions shows that the large increase in isoprene emission is of moderate importance in southern Europe for the strong increase in surface ozone (it can explain up to 30% of the change in central, southern and western Europe).[3] The soil-moisture dependent ozone dry deposition formulation and changes in snow cover, affecting the dry deposition, are more important processes: soil moisture dependence explains up to 80% of the change in Spain. Therefore it is vital to include soil moisture dependence in a model study of this type. Isoprene emissions are of less importance (0-30% in central and southern Europe), but not dismissible and should definitely be emitted on-line in climate-ozone projection studies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 115, D02303- p.
National Category
Natural Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25965DOI: 10.1029/2008JD011690ISI: 000273900100001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-25965DiVA: diva2:201171
Available from: 2009-03-03 Created: 2009-03-03 Last updated: 2017-12-13Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
2009 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The main objectives of this thesis were to investigate the dependency of European air pollution on climate variability and emission source region. Calculations with a chemistry transport model (CTM) were conducted to investigate the influence of climate variability. The CTM was forced by both simulated past (a re-analysis spanning 1958-2001) and future (a climate simulation spanning 1961-2100) meteorology keeping anthropogenic emissions constant. To investigate the influence of emission source region emissions were varied in western, eastern and northern Europe in seven-year (1997-2003) simulations.

The main conclusions in this thesis are

§         There is variability in air pollution due to climate variability on time scales from year to year to decades and long-term trends. Hence, what is measured now will not be valid in a decade, or even next year.

§         Interannual variability in air pollution due to climate variability is greater than interannual variability in anthropogenic emissions.

§         The extreme conditions in 2003, resulting in elevated surface O3 concentrations, could be an indication on what we can expect in the future.

§         The trend in surface O3 over the past due to climate change is similar to the projected trend due to future climate change: increasing in south-western and central Europe and decreasing in north-eastern Europe.

§         Changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition dependency on soil moisture are of importance for changes in surface O3 in central and southern Europe. It is vital to include these processes, especially the latter in climate change effect studies of surface O3.

§         This work indicates that it is of greater importance for health benefits of the European population to reduce primary PM emissions than precursors of secondary inorganic aerosol under the assumption of higher relative risk for primary PM. This is especially the case in western Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, 2009. 55 p.
Keyword
Acidification, Air Pollution, Climate Change, Europe, Numerical Model, Emission, Eutrophication, Key region, Nitrogen Dioxide, Particulate Matter, PM, Source region, Surface Ozone, Tropospheric Ozone
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25947 (URN)978-91-7155-828-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2009-04-03, William Olssonsalen, Svante Arrhenius väg 8A, Geovetenskapens hus, 13:00 (English)
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Available from: 2009-03-12 Created: 2009-03-02 Last updated: 2009-03-23Bibliographically approved

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