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Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe – longterm simulations of source-region and shipping contributions
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
2009 (English)In: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, Vol. 43, no 22-23, 3614-3620 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM2.5) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe during 1997–2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared.

WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM2.5 and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM2.5 is much higher (43% of total PPM2.5) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM2.5 is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM2.5 concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM2.5 and SIA in Europe.

The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301 000 per year due to PPM2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM2.5 components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM2.5). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 43, no 22-23, 3614-3620 p.
Keyword [en]
Emission, exposure, long-range transport, key region, PM
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25967DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.03.040ISI: 000267964300021OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-25967DiVA: diva2:201173
Available from: 2009-03-03 Created: 2009-03-03 Last updated: 2012-02-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region: Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
2009 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The main objectives of this thesis were to investigate the dependency of European air pollution on climate variability and emission source region. Calculations with a chemistry transport model (CTM) were conducted to investigate the influence of climate variability. The CTM was forced by both simulated past (a re-analysis spanning 1958-2001) and future (a climate simulation spanning 1961-2100) meteorology keeping anthropogenic emissions constant. To investigate the influence of emission source region emissions were varied in western, eastern and northern Europe in seven-year (1997-2003) simulations.

The main conclusions in this thesis are

§         There is variability in air pollution due to climate variability on time scales from year to year to decades and long-term trends. Hence, what is measured now will not be valid in a decade, or even next year.

§         Interannual variability in air pollution due to climate variability is greater than interannual variability in anthropogenic emissions.

§         The extreme conditions in 2003, resulting in elevated surface O3 concentrations, could be an indication on what we can expect in the future.

§         The trend in surface O3 over the past due to climate change is similar to the projected trend due to future climate change: increasing in south-western and central Europe and decreasing in north-eastern Europe.

§         Changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition dependency on soil moisture are of importance for changes in surface O3 in central and southern Europe. It is vital to include these processes, especially the latter in climate change effect studies of surface O3.

§         This work indicates that it is of greater importance for health benefits of the European population to reduce primary PM emissions than precursors of secondary inorganic aerosol under the assumption of higher relative risk for primary PM. This is especially the case in western Europe.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, 2009. 55 p.
Keyword
Acidification, Air Pollution, Climate Change, Europe, Numerical Model, Emission, Eutrophication, Key region, Nitrogen Dioxide, Particulate Matter, PM, Source region, Surface Ozone, Tropospheric Ozone
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-25947 (URN)978-91-7155-828-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2009-04-03, William Olssonsalen, Svante Arrhenius väg 8A, Geovetenskapens hus, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
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Available from: 2009-03-12 Created: 2009-03-02 Last updated: 2009-03-23Bibliographically approved

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