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The one Lakh car, economic growth and CO2 emissions in India
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
(English)Manuscript (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The expansion of the transport sector is an essential part of the economic and social development of a nation. But in many cases transportation also has adverse environmental implications.  Today these effects in India are relatively mild mainly due to the low number of cars in the country. At the same time the economic growth of India is creating new consumer segments. These segments, even though poor by western standards will by their sheer size create a large demand for cheap transportation. The expectation of this demand has incited automobile manufacturers to develop and launch new product lines of extremely cheap cars. Using household and manufacturer data this paper estimates a structural model of household demand for automobiles in India. Exploiting the model to simulate future demand the predictions are that during the next 20 years the number of cars in India will increase by 30 million due to economic growth and up to 8 million more due to the introduction of low-budget cars.  As a consequence the CO2 emissions from private cars will increase by 634% where more than one sixth of the increase is due to the introduction of low-cost cars. The increase due to the development of low-cost cars is of the same magnitude as the decrease commonly attributed to technological advancements in energy efficiency in estimation models.

Keyword [en]
Transport, Climate Change
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-26960OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-26960DiVA: diva2:212120
Available from: 2009-04-21 Created: 2009-04-21 Last updated: 2010-01-14Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Essays on technology adoption and political reform in developing countries
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essays on technology adoption and political reform in developing countries
2009 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The adoption of new technology plays a vital role in a developing country’s path to economic growth and better living conditions. The first chapter in this dissertation analyzes some of the determinants of the differences between countries in adoption levels of Internet and Communication Technologies (the “digital divide”). Since ICTs are considered to be important for economic growth as well as for participation in the global communication society this “digital divide” between rich and poor countries has generated a large amount of interest.

 The result of technology adoption is not only a greater potential for increased standards of living. The environmental side effects have commanded an increasing share of attention. The third chapter focuses on the climate effects from the combination of economic growth in India and the recent technological development in the budget-sector in the automobile industry. The world has never before seen such large consumer segments as those expected to be created by the recent economic growth in the developing world. In India alone the middle class (those that almost can afford a car at today’s prices) is expected to grow from 10 million to 95 million households in the next 20 years. The expectations of the future demand from these new consumer groups have incited automobile manufacturers to start developing extremely cheap cars targeted towards this market. How will this combination of economic growth and “frugal engineering” affect greenhouse gas emissions?

 Not only improvement in the economic conditions of developing countries is important. Maybe even more decisive are the rules of the game that decides how the countries’ riches are distributed. Parts of those rules are made up of the political system in a country. The second chapter focuses on some of the dynamic effects for the poor from changes in those political rules. Income distribution is difficult to measure so instead I use a different indicator: mortality rate of children. High levels of child mortality are to a large extent a problem of the poor and the rate of child mortality in a country gives an indication of the situation for the country’s most vulnerable citizens. Do democratic transitions in a country relate to the level of child mortality and if it does how long does it take before the effect is seen?

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Economics, Stockholm University, 2009. 110 p.
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-26967 (URN)978-91-7155-876-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2009-05-28, hörsal 11, hus F, Universitetsvägen 10 , Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-05-07 Created: 2009-04-21 Last updated: 2009-04-21Bibliographically approved

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