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A Prescriptive Approach to Elicitation of Decision Data
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2009 (English)In: Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, ISSN 1559-8608, E-ISSN 1559-8616, Vol. 3, no 1, 157-168 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Most current decision analytical tools and elicitation methods are built on the assumption that decision-makers are able to make their probability and utility assessments in a proper manner. This is, however, often not the case. The specification and execution of elicitation processes are in the majority of cases left to the discretion of the users, not least in user-driven cases such as public information and e-democracy projects. A number of studies have shown, among other things, that people's natural choice behaviour deviates from normative assumptions, and that the results display an inertia gap due to differently framed prospects. One reason for the occurrence of the inertia gap is people's inability to express their preferences as single numbers. Instead of considering this as being a human error, this paper uses the gap in order to develop a class of methods more aligned to the observed behaviour. The core idea of the class is to acknowledge the existence of the gap and, as a consequence, not elicit single point numbers. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 3, no 1, 157-168 p.
Keyword [en]
Decision analysis, Elicitation method, Imprecise information, Interval assessments
National Category
Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-35380DOI: 10.1080/15598608.2009.10411917OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-35380DiVA: diva2:287200
Available from: 2010-01-18 Created: 2010-01-18 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved

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