Threat and Control in Military Decision Making
2009 (English)In: Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
This paper presents a model of how military commanders estimate the threat posed by the enemy in a tactical situa- tion and how they use own forces to control that threat. The model is based on interviews with nine commanders from the Swedish navy and the purpose is to find automatic and adequate methods for reasoning about strategic issues based on the long-time experience of highly qualified military officers. The results show that the number of enemy units, the types of enemy units, the behavior of the enemy units, and the uncertainties regarding the number, types, and behavior determines the threat in a tactical situation. The own course of action works as a threat altering function to control that threat. When the commander should decide on a course of action, we suggest that it should be selected so it minimizes the expected threat.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Military decision making, threat, worst case, expected value, imprecise probabilities
Research subject Computer and Systems Sciences
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-35397OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-35397DiVA: diva2:287207
Durham, United Kingdom, 14 - 18 July 2009