The effect of time distribution shape on a complex epidemic model
2009 (English)In: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, ISSN 0092-8240, E-ISSN 1522-9602, Vol. 71, no 8, 1902-1913 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
In elaborating a model of the progress of an epidemic, it is necessary to make assumptions about the distributions of latency times and infectious times. In many models, the often implicit assumption is that these times are independent and exponentially distributed. We explore the effects of altering the distribution of latency and infectious times in a complex epidemic model with regional divisions connected by a travel intensity matrix. We show a delay in spread with more realistic latency times. More realistic infectiousness times lead to faster epidemics. The effects are similar but accentuated when compared to a purely homogeneous mixing model.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 71, no 8, 1902-1913 p.
Prevention and control, Stochastic process, Epidemiology, Infectious time, Latency time, Epidemic model
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject Mathematical Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-35471DOI: 10.1007/s11538-009-9430-xISI: 000270826300006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-35471DiVA: diva2:287409